Йоу, ребята, салам!
Я возвращаюсь к покрытию Fossil (FOSL)
На той неделе данные за 4й кв вышли. Небольшой апдейт для себя сделал.
Главное имхо, можно купить по 20-21 с прицелом на 27-28, а дальше по результатам 1-го квартала смотреть.
Определенно что Fossil нащупал рычаг с тех часами и вообще идет к стабилизации, вопрос времени насколько
он разовьет ситуацию в лучшую сторону.
(+) inventories lost 13.7% yoy, mb for the first time in 10y hist. Which is fine considering that the market isn’t in a growth phase;
(++) on quarterly basis decrease of the business has really eased since q32016. Trend is improving;
(-) though stopped declining and improving by 5mio accounts receivable haven’t shown explosive growth;
(-) SGA exps for 4q increased QoQ by 28 and 20% for 2015 and 2016, showing how hard it was to sell in last Q of a year, it used to be less difficult;
(-) 3q forecast for 4q2017 & FY was generally calm and in line with few positive surprises;
(asset structure story)
(+) LT debt fell -22%, debt to assets eased 35%->29%, net debt decreased by 34.6;
(+) accounts receivable stopped falling on quarterly basis;
(+) debt was reduced by 21% yoy (-171mio to 636) and it has happened 3d q in a row;
(+) amount of allowances in accounts receivable decreased from 84+ to 60+ mios;
(*) inventories getting down 2d q in a row, it is pretty unusual;
(+) Asian sales are a bright spot, meaning consumer there could be waking up;
(+) chart of “Retail Trade: Clothing and Clothing Accessory Stores” has recently started to look up and FOSL have had strong correlation with that indicator;
(-) the worst thing is that US-sales keep declining in a very hefty pace for several years now;
(-) yoy segments sales look sinking, albeit at the slower pace;
(Pitch) Overall FOSL has delivered stabilized quarterly figures, though not surprising/not inspiring with cautious optimism tune. Maybe their comeback through wearables is on its way, but it will take time and unlikely 1q2017 will be much greater than expectations.
Сообщение отредактировал Chuvak: 21 Февраль 2017 - 20:34