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вот от 19 окт 2007
Temir was consolidated by TuranAlem in late 2006; the former also reports on a
standalone basis. Excluding short-dated repo transactions, BTA has to refinance
approximately $2.5bn of financial liabilities, falling due until June next year. Roughly
$1.25bn of refinancing is already completed; in addition in September, BTA said it
fully redeemed a $600mn loan facility from Deutsche/ HSBC, using available funds.
In early October, BTA concluded a placement of its $750mn DPR
securitisation programme, where two senior tranches were secured by specialised
international insurance agencies. The bank commented that the placement “was not
aimed to refinance its financial liabilities” (probably a mere courtesy remark); the
cost of the placement was not disclosed. We view this as a very supportive event.
According to the arranger, the transaction contains rating triggers based on its own
underlying transaction ratings (which are currently BBB-/Baa3).
Supporting points: (1) Similarly to KKB, BTA is the one of the country’s largest
banks and can count on extraordinary liquidity support if needed. (2) BTA has a
strategic vision to develop as a ‘pan-Eurasian’ financial institution; consequently
38% of the bank’s assets are located abroad and can theoretically be used as a
source of extraordinary cash. (3) Temir Bank itself is a very sellable asset, should
BTS still be willing (as it was announced in September) to sell it given decreased
equity valuations in the sector. (4) The bank has already refinanced or redeemed a
material part of its short-dated financial liabilities.
Negative points: (1) BTA is one of the least transparent institutions with multiple
financial subsidiaries. (2) On the asset side, the bank has exposure to some of the
large problem clients such as KKB (i.e. Kuat), so if Moody’s decides to proceed with
KKB’s downgrade because of concerns over asset quality, BTA might also be
affected. (3) The bank still has to refinance a material amount of short-dated
financial liabilities. (4) The latest industrial statistics show that Temir suffered large
withdrawals of retail deposits in July-August.