Отправлено 20 November 2009 - 14:32
By Laura Cochrane
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Kazakhstan is regaining bond
investor confidence faster than any other country as rising oil
prices spur an economic rebound.
Credit-default swaps that compensate holders of government
bonds in case of a default fell to 237 basis points this week
from 498 basis points on June 30, the biggest decline this year,
according to CMA Datavision prices for 38 countries on
Bloomberg. The decrease suggests improving perceptions of the
nation’s ability to pay debt.
Kazakhstan, which owns 3.2 percent of the world’s oil
reserves, is reviving after Central Asia’s biggest energy
producer spent $19 billion, or 14 percent of gross domestic
product, rescuing lenders and creating jobs. ING Groep NV,
Commerzbank AG and JPMorgan Chase & Co. this month recommended
buying bonds or shares in the nation’s banks, as crude oil
approached $80 a barrel.
“Kazakhstan has certainly come back from the edge to some
sense of normalcy,” said Harald Eggerstedt, a credit strategist
at Edinburgh-based bond broker RIA Capital Markets Ltd., who
worked for the World Bank between 1990 and 1995. “Oil prices
have reduced pressure on the economy, renewed demand for fuel
has brought down risk and the country is on the way to a smaller
and more efficient banking system.”
At the height of the banking crisis in February, defaultswap
rates on Kazakhstan surged to 1,646 basis points, the fifth
highest after Ukraine, Argentina, Pakistan and Iceland. The
price is now closing in on the 192 basis points for Russia,
which has a higher debt ranking. Moody’s Investors Service rates
Kazakhstan Baa2, the second-lowest investment-grade ranking, and
Russia a step higher at Baa1.
Improving Fortunes
Kazakhstan may sell about $500 million of debt in 2010, the
Finance Ministry said last week. Officials from neighboring
Russia, the world’s biggest energy supplier, briefed investors
in London earlier this month on plans to sell as much as $17.8
billion of bonds next year.
“If oil prices stay where they are until 2011, Kazakhstan
is completely safe,” said Tatiana Orlova, an economist at ING
in London, which predicts further declines in the cost of
protection. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value in
exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent
should a country fail to adhere to its agreements. A basis point
equals $1,000 on a contract protecting $10 million from default.
Commerzbank AG recommended the bonds of Almaty-based ATF
Bank, a unit of UniCredit SpA and Bank CenterCredit, part owned
by South Korea’s Kookmin Bank, last week. ATF’s dollardenominated
debt due 2014 yields 7.91 percentage points more
than Treasuries, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ING
also recommended ATF’s 2014 debt last week.
Buy Banks
Shares of Kazkommertsbank and Halyk Savings Bank,
Kazakhstan’s first and third biggest lenders, offer the best
risk-reward ratio among lenders in eastern European, the Middle
East and Africa, JPMorgan said in a Nov. 5 note. UBS AG also
recommended the two banks this week.
Kazakhstan’s four biggest banks amassed at least $24
billion of debt as economic growth averaging more than 10
percent a year from 2000 through 2007 lured foreign lenders.
When credit markets froze in late 2007 and the price of oil fell
to as low as $39 a barrel, the nation’s biggest lenders couldn’t
repay creditors.
Bank losses triggered a $19 billion government rescue for
lenders and the economy. The central bank devalued its currency
in February. The government bought a 75.1 percent stake in BTA
Bank, then the country’s largest lender, that month to avert
bankruptcy. Mortgage lender AO Astana Finance stopped paying
interest and principle on $175 million of dollar bonds in May.
Signs of Recovery
“Kazakhstan has gone from having a fairly high level of
respect among international investors to confidence being
undermined by the banking sector,” said Ian McCall, portfolio
manager at London-based Argo Capital Management Ltd. Those
concerns remain even as the economy rebounds, he said.
Kazakhstan’s $132 billion economy is showing signs of
recovery after a 73 percent surge in crude this year. UBS
predicts 1.5 percent economic growth this year will be followed
by 5 percent expansion in 2010.
Industrial production grew an annual 6.4 percent in October
from 2.8 percent growth a month earlier. The central bank said
currency reserves climbed to a one-year high of $20.8 billion
last month. The benchmark KASE stock index is up 66 percent for
the second half of 2009, more than double the 27 percent gain in
the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
“The Kazakh economy has bottomed out,” UBS analysts led
by Dmitry Vinogradov in London wrote in a research note on Nov.
18.