Отправлено 23 October 2008 - 10:31
Хорошо неделька заканчивается, всё время думаешь, что это кошмарный сон и он скоро закончится, и всё время оказывается, что он только начинается.
А вот немного позитива:
Bottom may be in sight
Commentary: Stocks are getting into the range of historic lows
By Peter Brimelow & Edwin S. Rubenstein
Last update: 12:12 a.m. EDT Oct. 23, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks retest their lows. But a bottom may be within sight.
It's been 18 months since we last looked at the broad stock market relative to its long-run total cumulative real return -- that's adding in capital gains and dividends, and adjusting for inflation.
When we last did this, MarketWatch editors wrote the headline: "Stocks may rise a bit more, but must eventually come down." See Feb. 23, 2007 column
They were right! The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
News, chart, profile, more
Last: 8,519.21-514.45-5.69%
4:05pm 10/22/2008
$INDU 8,519.21, -514.45, -5.7%) was then 12, 647. It peaked at 14,164 last October, before getting down to (gulp) 8,543 Wednesday night.
We say "they" rather than "we" because we've been running this chart regularly since 2003. It consistently showed that stocks, after a classic top in 2000, had not retreated to a classic low. See April 16, 2003 column See Aug. 31, 2006 column
But stocks went up anyway. It was kind of embarrassing.
Well, now long-term trends have prevailed and stocks have indeed retreated. We estimate that on Oct. 10, when the Dow closed at 8,451) they were 38% below long-run trend. That's unquestionably getting into the range of the historic lows seen in 1981 (40% below trend), 1974 (41% below trend), and 1932 (42% below trend).
Our charts are based on the work of Prof. Jeremy Siegel of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, author of the classic book, "Stocks For the Long-Run." He doesn't always agree with our conclusions. See Siegel's Website
Siegel's most famous finding: Stocks have accumulated on average in real terms at a remarkably consistent 7% or so over the last two hundred years. Shown on a log scale this consistent trend appears as a straight line.
This was a fashionable finding at the stock market top. You don't hear as much about it now. But it's still true.
Still, it's not true in the short run. Siegel's measure of the equity market (much broader than the Dow) shows that it reaches historic highs above trend, as in 1999 (85% above trend), 1968 (80% above trend), 1928 (87% above trend),
So stocks right now are satisfactorily down. But not necessarily enough.
Two chilling caveats are in order.
First, Siegel collects his data annually. That is, his broad measure of stocks was down 40% on average during the historic bottom year 1980.
Our Oct. 10 reading is just one day. To bring the overall 2008 average down, stocks will have to be down for most of the year.
In other words, day-to-day, stocks could certainly go lower.
But not much lower -- at least, that much lower. Which happens to be the consensus reached by the oldest advisors monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest. See Oct. 13 column
Second, after 1972, the stock market lurched along below trend for a long time -- until 1995, in fact.
It could do the same now.
But that's not quite as bad as it sounds. Remember, the overall market appreciates at some 7% a year. There is room for some rousing rallies under that trend, especially from a low.
Тема закрыта
RBS (22.10.08) писал:
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На себе дефолтов не испытай главное. А то штанишки последние уйдут на распродаже. 
