Chuvak (30 June 2016 - 15:16) писал:
Йо-йо, советую также присмотреться к Skyworks solutions (SWKS).
Можно покупать сейчас.
*-=fin=- Jun2016(FY2015+2Q2016)
(growth&profitability story) Skyworks is riding the towering wave of data transmission and it doing it in a nicely way
so that industry revenues are translated into 2-digit growth of the company's financial results, during 2013-2015 trend got stronger.
Company grows 7th year in row, revenue and operating income outpace growth of the expenses, favorable tax rate.
(+) 2016 (ends at oct) would be 7th consecutive year in a row of growing revenue;
(+) every 3y the business's sales and operating inc. double;
(+) the company has favorable tax environment due to overseas operations that lowers average rate to 22% vs 35% US tax rate;
(+) outstanding revenue growth rates 10y 15+%, 5y 24% never looked so good especially when CoGS' rates are 2+% lower;
(+) operating expenses' growth lack behind the revenue's growth;
(+) OE per share and diluted EPS's growth rates are >30%, but it can be a temporal event - more reasonable rate is 20% +/-;
(+) margins are just great and keep improving alongside with trend of ever-increasing data-consumption;
(+) R&D to sales averages at 11% (300+ mio a year);
(-) during 2015 SWKS' earned 798 mio: cash change 237.8, PPE change 270.5, dividends 123.1 and share-based compens. 99.8 (12% of NI).
Thus shareholders miss 10-12% of NI annually due to generous benefit policy. We must always subtract 12+% of net income, OE fortunately covers it;
(-) sales per employee grow only at 10% pace;
*Though SWKS’s recent per share results grew at 30%-40% pace, 20% is more suggestible – at 5y average;
(asset structure story) BS currently is in an extremely healthy form unburdened by any debt or heavy liabilities.
Current ratio of 4+ and hidden value at intangible assets, however rather big goodwill at the balance.
(+) great assets to liability ratio 6+. During 2011-2012 it was below 1 due to heavy LT debt;
(+) no debt since 2010, current ratio is 3y average is 4%;
(+) cash averages at 25% of assets, inventories are low and accs receivable at 15% to assets with av. ratio of 12.5%;
(+) intangible assets account for few percentage in LT assets structure, however it is obvious that they cost several hundred mios;
(-) during 2011-2012 SKWS had negative working capital and book value;
(-) 22% of assets are concentrated in goodwill;
(cash flows story and per share appraisal) Currently we are in a period of improving flows, that could be near its cyclical end. Structure of cash flows
looks simple and understandable. SWKS started to pay dividend which is ok and its amount of shares grow in moderate way. Adjusted PE signals
that the time for a purchase m.b. has come at level 60-65 and below.
(+) CFO and FCF are keep growing since 2012 marking their 6th (in oct2016) year of steady flows;
(+) average growth of shares out is below 1% a year(3,5 years) which is acceptable, and LT is 1.95%, which is a bit heavy though not very critical;
(+) started to pay dividends in 2014 partly returning cash to shareholders, it not always a sign that management doesn't know how invest better;
(+) adjusted PE (cash-debt) at level 65 equals to 21.27 which is very buyable, last time this level was seen in 2013 bfr stock went from 24 to 100+ in 2015;
(-) 2007-2010 period was market by improving CFO, but then it was spoiled till 2012, a bad pattern.
(-) FCF over 2006-2011 was kind of jagged;
*capex spiked from 5.7% to 13.2% of revenue since 2014 ("we invested $430 million on capital expenditures associated with plant expansions in
Mexico and Japan);
Можно покупать сейчас.
*-=fin=- Jun2016(FY2015+2Q2016)
(growth&profitability story) Skyworks is riding the towering wave of data transmission and it doing it in a nicely way
so that industry revenues are translated into 2-digit growth of the company's financial results, during 2013-2015 trend got stronger.
Company grows 7th year in row, revenue and operating income outpace growth of the expenses, favorable tax rate.
(+) 2016 (ends at oct) would be 7th consecutive year in a row of growing revenue;
(+) every 3y the business's sales and operating inc. double;
(+) the company has favorable tax environment due to overseas operations that lowers average rate to 22% vs 35% US tax rate;
(+) outstanding revenue growth rates 10y 15+%, 5y 24% never looked so good especially when CoGS' rates are 2+% lower;
(+) operating expenses' growth lack behind the revenue's growth;
(+) OE per share and diluted EPS's growth rates are >30%, but it can be a temporal event - more reasonable rate is 20% +/-;
(+) margins are just great and keep improving alongside with trend of ever-increasing data-consumption;
(+) R&D to sales averages at 11% (300+ mio a year);
(-) during 2015 SWKS' earned 798 mio: cash change 237.8, PPE change 270.5, dividends 123.1 and share-based compens. 99.8 (12% of NI).
Thus shareholders miss 10-12% of NI annually due to generous benefit policy. We must always subtract 12+% of net income, OE fortunately covers it;
(-) sales per employee grow only at 10% pace;
*Though SWKS’s recent per share results grew at 30%-40% pace, 20% is more suggestible – at 5y average;
(asset structure story) BS currently is in an extremely healthy form unburdened by any debt or heavy liabilities.
Current ratio of 4+ and hidden value at intangible assets, however rather big goodwill at the balance.
(+) great assets to liability ratio 6+. During 2011-2012 it was below 1 due to heavy LT debt;
(+) no debt since 2010, current ratio is 3y average is 4%;
(+) cash averages at 25% of assets, inventories are low and accs receivable at 15% to assets with av. ratio of 12.5%;
(+) intangible assets account for few percentage in LT assets structure, however it is obvious that they cost several hundred mios;
(-) during 2011-2012 SKWS had negative working capital and book value;
(-) 22% of assets are concentrated in goodwill;
(cash flows story and per share appraisal) Currently we are in a period of improving flows, that could be near its cyclical end. Structure of cash flows
looks simple and understandable. SWKS started to pay dividend which is ok and its amount of shares grow in moderate way. Adjusted PE signals
that the time for a purchase m.b. has come at level 60-65 and below.
(+) CFO and FCF are keep growing since 2012 marking their 6th (in oct2016) year of steady flows;
(+) average growth of shares out is below 1% a year(3,5 years) which is acceptable, and LT is 1.95%, which is a bit heavy though not very critical;
(+) started to pay dividends in 2014 partly returning cash to shareholders, it not always a sign that management doesn't know how invest better;
(+) adjusted PE (cash-debt) at level 65 equals to 21.27 which is very buyable, last time this level was seen in 2013 bfr stock went from 24 to 100+ in 2015;
(-) 2007-2010 period was market by improving CFO, but then it was spoiled till 2012, a bad pattern.
(-) FCF over 2006-2011 was kind of jagged;
*capex spiked from 5.7% to 13.2% of revenue since 2014 ("we invested $430 million on capital expenditures associated with plant expansions in
Mexico and Japan);
Этот анализ себя оправдал.
